Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of  Thinking, Fast and Slow  and the coauthor of  Nudge,  a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones-"a tour de force" ( New York Times ). 

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients-or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants-or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

In  Noise , Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made  Thinking, Fast and Slow  and  Nudge  groundbreaking  New York Times  bestsellers,  Noise  explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment-and what we can do about it.

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